Analysis
Op-eds, notes and weak signals.
Our press publications and foresight notes on industrial sovereignty, European defence and the steering of international organisations.
“France under IMF supervision?” Ten surprises 2026 could hold for usIn French
2025 shook the business of forecasting. Julien Serre nonetheless ventures ten scenarios for 2026, from the improbable to the inevitable — from Ukraine at the gates of the European Union to Nefertiti’s return to Cairo.
Defence: the Omnibus is an order-generating machine, a strategic opportunity for SMEsIn French
The Omnibus proposals unveiled by the European Commission create unprecedented opportunities for French SMEs to support the Union’s defence effort.
Foresight in the face of uncertainty: what if weak signals were a compass?
In a world saturated with data and governed by immediate performance indicators, the temptation is strong to favour the measurable over the relevant. Yet the experience of large industrial companies shows that it is sometimes — not always, but noticeably — weak signals that prefigure the real turning points.
Official development assistance after the Trump shockIn French
UNOPS, UNODC, UNEP, UNDP… France subsidises international agencies that struggle to justify their relevance. Better to back our own NGOs and the French Development Agency, argues Julien Serre.
Foresight in international organisations: what can they learn from large corporations?
Large corporations have professionalised the way they analyse possible futures. International organisations, long seen as the guardians of stability, sometimes struggle to absorb that same requirement for rapid transformation.
The UN: I pay you, I pay you notIn French
The United Nations is at an impasse. Its members, trusting it less and less, are not paying their assessed contributions. The institution needs urgent reform, argues Julien Serre.
Can we still think long term in a world run on KPIs?
Reconciling immediate performance with strategic direction.
Gaza: Europe will have to take its full place in the reconstructionIn French
In Gaza, the humanitarian emergency and the fight against Hamas still dominate. But the reconstruction of this devastated territory has to be anticipated now, and the European Union will have an important role to play in it.
Ukraine: let us exercise the power of cultureIn French
Recognising UNESCO’s leading role, and funding and enforcing the 1954 convention on the protection of cultural property, are essential steps in helping Ukraine rebuild.
From monitoring to roadmap: building foresight that executive committees can use
In large French industrial companies — whether in energy, infrastructure, aerospace or defence — foresight often remains confined to monitoring: a stream of annotated information, a radar of trends, a library of weak signals. That is useful. It is not sufficient.
Should we put AI on pause?In French
Should we not ask ourselves what we expect, as a human community, from the future developments of artificial intelligence? Is it not time to put invention on pause?
Making a European sovereignty fund workIn French
A European sovereignty fund to support our industries, our technologies and the low-carbon transition was on the table at the European summit of 9 February. Julien Serre sets out the conditions under which it can succeed.
When AI speaks to us of sovereigntyIn French
Progress in artificial intelligence is spectacular, as the performance of the ChatGPT chatbot has recently shown. Are we ready to meet the challenge in Europe, and in France in particular? It is up to us to give ourselves every chance.